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Charlie Carrel : Capping Ranges With Small Bet Sizing

 This is an example of a hand that taught me a valuable lesson that was recently offered by poker pro Charlie Carrel through his Twitch channel.


Carrel received four hands in the hands of $75K guaranteed Sunday 500. As the chip leader, there are 73 big blinds, and because of the short stack of only 8 BBs, he puts a good black belt on the pressure of the two 40-ish big blinds.




In this hand, one of the medium stacks and the short stack both folded, and the action was on Carrel in the small blind with {A-Diamonds}{5-Diamonds}. He raised 3x and got a call from the other medium stack in the big blind with about 40 big blinds.The flop came {10-Clubs}{9-Diamonds}{8-Clubs}. Carrel immediately identified this as a spot to get out of line because of the immense ICM pressure on the player in the BB and because he recognized him as a good, but not elite reg.

Carrel first bet on a 34% pot and chose a small size due to the fact because he was out of position and had very little equity on one of the most wettest flops  imagined. Karel's reasoning is that he expects the opponent to use two pairs or better to raise the small flop bet almost 100% of the time. This means that if the big blind just called and he did, then his range will be limited to a pair of hands and draw.

The turn brought the safe {3-Spades} and this time Carrel fired for 78 percent of the pot. He was thinking that a lot of villain's hands contained a pair plus a draw that would allow him to call a big turn bet, but not a big river bet if he were unimproved. As expected, the BB did make the call.

The river was the {K-Diamonds} which was another blank. Again, Carrel bet 78 percent of the pot, a bet which almost put his opponent all in with the 31 BB stack he had behind. Fortunately for Carrel, this player decided to fold as expected.

Carrel estimates that the river bluff can get almost 90% of the time. If this is true, then his river bet is a huge profit because it only needs to work 44% of the time to break even.

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